🌻
美國聯準會（Fed）在美東時間22日下午2時（台灣23日凌晨2時）宣布利率維持在趨近零的水準，但暗示升息可能會比預期來得快一些，同時也大幅下修今年的經濟展望。
https://udn.com/news/story/6811/5764746
🌻Adobe(ADBE)電話會議內容讀後感
ADBE前兩天發表財報了.
這次ADBE在財報後下跌, 主要是兩個原因(如下). 不過個人覺得是瑕不掩瑜:
1. 因為之前已經漲了不少(投資人期望太高)
2. 因為Digital Marketing這部分的業務受到季節性的影響, 所以表現不是很突出(沒有比預期高出很多)
a. net new Digital Media ARR (3% beat vs guide, vs 15% beat in 2Q21 vs 35% beat in 3Q20).
b. 有分析師在問(“Maybe just -- can we double-click on the seasonality commentary in the quarter? Because if we look at the beat versus guidance on net new digital media ARR, it looks, at the same time you had the weakest beat, but then the strongest guide in the last three years, which kind of speaks to and confirm some of those seasonality comments that you made.)
i. 高層對此的回答是, 主要是疫情後, 加上正值夏季, 大家的日子回復到正常&放假外出, 所以這部分的業務有受到影響(I think going into the quarter, we had expected that the consumer with a little bit more return to normalcy as what's happening in the environment.)
ii. 高層又說了一些話, 不過重點就是他不認為這是甚麼大事”So, net-net, I would say that the growth prospects for that particular business and the growth drivers remain intact. But again, very much in line. And this is what we feel good about the insights that we're getting on the business.”
iii. 也提到, Q4通常會是digital marketing業務的旺季(表現會不俗的意思)
另外, 覺得這次令我印象深刻的是, 當高層與分析師提到這些事情:
• 常在一些公司的電話會議中提到omnichannel這個字(疫情後, 更明顯了). 這次高層也有提到. ADBE可說是omnichannel概念股:
o “I mean, a big part of that is more and more companies are thirdly doing the multi-channel omnichannel, whatever they want to call it. And I think that's only going to continue to be a driver of our Digital Experience Solutions. Because today that stable stakes and so we just look at it and say whether you're shopping in-store over they are shopping online. You need a solution that treats you like a customer that we know of.”
• 網路上影片(video)的興起, 以及串流影音, 有提高了Adobe的營收天花板(用句分析師的術語, 就是TAM (total addressable market) expansion.
• 當使用者製作了越來越多的內容, 內容管理(content management)的能力就越顯重要, 內容上的流程管理(workflow)也越顯重要. Adobe的產品能夠幫內容製作者解決這樣的問題.
• 而Adobe各產品間的相容性, 標準化, 整合能力, 是它的競爭優勢之一:
o And one of the things we did really well is what we called our named user deployment and how, you know, when we have these enterprise licensing agreements, we offer enterprises the ability to download and distribute within the companies. And the more we do training and evangelism of the products, that leads to adoption. So, I would say there's an element of standardization, there's an element of more content.
而最近ADBE有個新聞, 引起了我的注意, 就是它即將在自己的平台上, 提供付款服務(payment service). 根據之前研究SHOP的經驗, 這有可能會對股價造成一定的漲幅:
On Sept. 15, Adobe announced that it will add payment services to its e-commerce platform this year to help merchants accept credit cards and other ways of paying. The move will deepen Adobe's rivalry with e-commerce firm Shopify (SHOP).
For the service, Adobe has partnered with PayPal (PYPL), which will process a variety of payment types, including credit and debit cards as well as PayPal's own payment and buy-now-pay-later offerings.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/adbe-stock-adobe-beats-fiscal-q3-targets/
接下來該怎麼辦? 對於基本面良好的公司如ADBE, 我能說的就是buy the dip(逢低買進)了. 供參.
🌻The Facebook Files
一個星期前, WSJ上面有個關於FB的大篇幅調查報導. 有興趣的可以看看.
The Facebook Files
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039
這篇文章挺長, 也沒有看到華爾街中文版本的完整翻譯, 不過可以看看這篇:
https://on.wsj.com/2ZmFimp
"《華爾街日報》的相關調查顯示，這家社交媒體巨頭心知肚明，其平台會傷害用戶，而且是以該公司常常完全了解的方式造成傷害。目前，全球近半數人口都是Facebook旗下平台的用戶。其中一些證據尤其令人不安：據《華爾街日報》報導，Facebook的內部研究顯示，在報告稱有過自殺念頭的青少年中當中，有13%的英國用戶和6%的美國用戶把這種念頭歸結於Instagram。"
另一篇相關新聞:
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/156683
"《華爾街日報》於13日揭露Facebook的XCheck系統，也就是內部系統中的VIP名單，數百萬名人、政治人物與記者等知名公眾人物都在特別的一份「白名單」之內。"
"這些「貴賓」在社群上發布的內容可以躲過一般的審查系統，即使發布明顯的不當內容，也不會立即被刪除。《衛報》報導，Facebook的獨立監督委員會表示，在閱讀該篇報導後，決定要審查XCheck系統，並要求Facebook對其進行報告與解釋。"
🌻我喜歡的Apple TV影集, "Ted Lasso", 是這次艾美獎的大贏家, 很多主要演員都得獎了.
很高興這兩年, 因為有這部戲的陪伴, 讓我撐過了疫情, 家人離世, 以及一些烏煙瘴氣的事情.
前幾天看演員的得獎影片, 一位娛樂記者問得獎的男配角(也是編劇之一)說, 你覺得這部片的核心思想是甚麼. 他說, be curious, not judgemental.
就像得獎的女演員在劇中一開始是很鴨霸很壞心的球隊主人, 但這樣做是因為被前夫傷透了心, 所以想要弄垮離婚後分到的財產(也是前夫的最愛--球隊); 外表看起來永遠陽光燦爛做啦啦隊的男主角, 在青少年時父親自殺, 造成了他心裡永遠的痛&障礙(讓他在球賽時, 會有突發恐懼症).
我們每個人其實都有很多面, 很多個故事. 尤其在社群, 大家都是萍水相逢, 對彼此的了解都是非常片面的; 而有時候在社群裡, 看到有人會因為只看到一個面向, 就去下斷語. 這其實是人之常情很難避免, 所以我們需要常用第二層思考去提醒自己. 社群裡需要更多的同理心.
“Be curious, not judgmental” – Walt Whitman(惠特曼)(美國詩人)
Picture來源:
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/09/apples-global-hit-comedy-series-ted-lasso-sweeps-the-2021-primetime-emmy-awards-scoring-history-making-win-for-outstanding-comedy-series/
hit it意思 在 [外絮] 龜龜：如果以後再有人叫我Westbrick，我- 看板NBA 的推薦與評價
龜龜：如果以後再有人叫我Westbrick，我會出來制止
“I think, for one, 100% stand behind my wife and how she’s feeling because it
’s not about just this year. Right now, she’s reached a point and my family ha
s reached a point where it’s really weighing on them and its very unfortunate j
ust for me personally because this is just a game. This not end all be all. When
it comes to basketball, I don’t mind the criticism of missing and making shot.
But the moment it becomes where my name is getting shamed, it becomes an issue.
I’ve kind of let it go in the past because it never really bothered me."
龜龜：首先我想，你們都知道我100%支持我的妻子以及她的感受，因為這不僅僅是發生在今
年賽季。現在，她已經到了一個臨界點，我的家人已經到了一個真正讓他們感到壓力的臨界
點，這對我個人來說非常不幸，因為這只是場籃球比賽。這還不是生活的全部。談到籃球比
賽，我並不介意對我投籃選擇或者出手沒能命中的批評，但當有人藉此想侮辱我的名字，那
就成了一個問題。過去我總是想著隨它去吧，因為它從不曾讓我心煩。
"It really hit me the other day. Me and wife were at the teacher-parent conferen
ce for my son. And the teacher told me, Noah is so proud of his last name, he wr
ites it everywhere, he tells everyone ‘I’m Westbrook’… I kind of sat there i
n shock and it hit me. I can’t no longer allow people, for example, Westbrick t
o me is now shaming, shaming my name and my legacy for my kid. It’s a name that
means more to me, my wife, my mom, my dad, the ones that paved the way for me."
龜龜：前幾天這件事真的觸動到我，我和妻子參加了我兒子的家長會。老師告訴我，Noah為
自己的姓氏感到非常自豪，他會在任何地方，任何東西上寫上自己的姓氏，他告訴大家我姓
Westbrook……我有點震驚地坐在那裡，這觸動到了我。我不能再允許別人，例如用Westbri
ck來侮辱我的姓氏。我的姓氏是我留給我孩子的遺產，不僅是對我，對我的妻子，我的父母
和那些為我開闢道路的人們來說，都有更為深刻的意義。
"That’s just one example myself and my wife where its not great and I think a l
ot of times, I let it slide, but now its time to put a stop to that, and put it
on notice, there’s a difference. Every time I hear it now, I will make sure I a
ddress it and nip that in the bud… It’s very unfortunate, it’s been like this
for my entire career. I’ve been blessed and super thankful for the ones around
me and the ones that support me but it’s really the shaming of my name, the sh
aming of my character, the shaming of who am I as a person, is to me, not warran
te. I haven’t done anything to anyone, I haven’t hurt anyone. I’ve done noth
ing but play basketball a way that people may not like. And this is just a game.
This not my entire life. I think that is the ultimate thing that’s been for me
…"
龜龜：這只是影響我和我妻子的一個例子，這是不對的，我想過很多次，我過去都一笑而過
，但現在是時候制止這種行為，並且引起人們的注意，我的籃球生涯和生活是不同的。現在
我每次參加記者會都會強調這一點，我會確保我解決它並將它扼殺在萌芽狀態......很不幸
的是，這種聲音充斥著我的整個職業生涯，我很感激我周圍的人和支持我的人，但是對我人
格上的侮辱，對我姓氏的侮辱，對我性格上的侮辱，我認為沒有必要。我沒有對任何人做任
何事，我沒有傷害任何人。除了我打球的風格人們可能不喜歡之外，我什麼也沒做。這只是
場籃球比賽，這不是我全部的生活，而我認為生活對我來說是最重要的事情……
https://reurl.cc/MbggAn
感觸良多
--
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