【台美日共同守護印太安全】
美國、日本、台灣三國智庫共同主辦「2020台美日三邊印太安全對話」,包括蔡英文總統、美國前國務院助卿坎博(Kurt Campbell)、前國防部印太安全助理部長薛瑞福(Randall Schriver)、日本前駐美大使佐佐木賢一郎等重要人士都與會。
我也參與三國國會議員的對談,與羅致政委員、陳以信委員、美國聯邦眾議員貝拉(Ami Bera)以及日本眾議員鈴木馨祐,交流2020後的印太及台海情勢與願景。
結果準備厚厚一疊的英文講稿幾乎沒派上用場,講太HIGH不小心就脫稿演出....。無論如何還是提供原本的講稿跟大家參詳,一起來練習英文吧:
2020 Taiwan-US-Japan Trilateral Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue
Hello moderator, fellow panelists, I am Taiwan legislator Freddy Lim.
This year, due to the pandemic, we can only conduct this panel online. I’m still very glad to be invited to attend this event and exchange ideas with these great panelists. Here I want to share my views on today’s main topic: “Challenges and Opportunities in the Indo-Pacific Region and the Taiwan Strait in 2020 & Beyond”.
First I want to start with the conventional positioning of Taiwan under the established international order.
After WWII, the international order led by the allies dragged Taiwan into China’s civil war. Since then, Taiwan's been struggling with the “One China” dispute, unable to gain independence and world recognition like many other colonies.
Even though Taiwanese people have built an independent and democratic country after half a century of hard work, now we enjoy freedom and human rights, the international community still isolates Taiwan. One of the main reasons is obviously China.
The established international community viewed China as a huge economic opportunity, a partner that would eventually carry out political reforms and be integrated into modern international order. Under this conventional thinking, the international community is willing to help China ease and suppress many of its unpleasant problems, including the thorny "Democratic Taiwan."
This has reduced Taiwan to merely China’s “Taiwan Problem”. We’re even slandered as the “troublemaker” of the Taiwan Strait; As a result, the respect that Taiwan deserves continues to be shelved, and the active role we can play, the contributions we can make in the international community are also ignored.
However, this established international structure is now changing.
After decades of appeasement policy, and acquiring WTO membership in 2001, China’s various structural changes that the world anticipated have never taken place. On the contrary, China’s been using organized measures, such as bribing, infiltration, and hybrid-warfare, to undermine international norms. It’s worked hard to manipulate and control international organizations, in order to project its influence onto the world. These actions have been even more distinct after Xi Jinping became President of China in 2012.
Internationally, China implemented debt-trap diplomacy on many countries through the Belt and Road Initiative. It established Confucius Institutes around the world, which are basically intelligence operations in the name of culture. Chinese tech giant, Huawei also aids China’s international surveillance. Not to mention China’s relentless expansion in the South China Sea, building military bases, creating man-made islands. This year, it’s even more serious. We witnessed the long time Chinese infiltration into UN organizations. The favoritism towards China helped its cover-up, which led to the dysfunction of WHO, ultimately causing the COVID-19 global pandemic.
Domestically, the Chinese government not only failed to implement any political reforms, but it also created the “Social Credit” system with advanced technology, to surveil and control its own people; In addition, the Chinese government built the notorious “Reeducation Camps” - concentration camps in reality, in Tibet, Xingjian, where human rights conditions were already in a bad shape. Even the Hong Kong people, who were supposed to be protected by the promise of “One Country, Two Systems”, their freedom and human rights were completely destroyed by the Chinese government.
These compelling examples show that there is some serious fallacy in the conventional way of viewing China. All facts point to this: Taiwan is not the problem. China is the problem. China is the troublemaker of the Taiwan Strait. It’s the troublemaker of the Indo-Pacific region. It’s even the troublemaker of the entire world.
Under decades of collective misjudgement, China was allowed to become the most terrifying, largest digital authoritarian government in human history. It’s a new form of dictatorship. As a response, many countries have vastly changed their China policy in recent years, thus the change of international structure.
This brings me to my next point: Give Taiwan the status it deserves. Let us contribute to the international society.
In a new international structure, Taiwan shouldn’t be categorized as “China’s Taiwan Problem”. Instead, we should be one of the key countries for international cooperation, responding to the new type of dictatorship.
Taiwan has faced authoritarian China on the front line for decades. Many countries are now facing the problem of China's infiltration under its United Front programs. Taiwan started dealing with the same problems 10 to 20 years ago. We have gained a lot of experience to contribute to the international community.
Taking the COVID pandemic as an example, Taiwan has studied and analyzed the actual situation and the information provided by the Chinese government with a serious and high-vigilance attitude. Based on our experience and lessons learned from the China SARS epidemic in 2001, we decisively formed a series of epidemic preventive measures. We have handled the crisis with the principle of openness and transparency. Our people have been self-disciplined and willing to cooperate. All of this demonstrates the high level of democracy in Taiwan’s society.
After the domestic epidemic was brought under control, Taiwan has continued to share our epidemic prevention supplies and the experiences on forming epidemic prevention policies with the world.
Although Taiwan was suppressed, even excluded by China in various international organizations in the past, we’ve been doing our best to comply with the norms & regulations of international organizations. We always actively contribute every time we have the opportunity. What I want to say is, all of this proves Taiwan could be a reliable partner in the international community. We are capable of working with other countries to solve major problems. We deserve our seats and participation in international organizations.
Regarding the impact of U.S. change of administration.
Now the U. S. presidential election is over and the administration is currently under transition. Many countries, including Taiwan, are concerned about whether the new U.S. government will change its course on foreign policy, especially its China policy. However, the "Rebalance (of Asia-Pacific Region)" proposed by the Obama administration in 2011, was in fact already a strategic adjustment in response to the rise of China and possible subsequent expansion.
The Trump administration further proposed the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017 to promote and uphold international law and regulations, aiming to ensure every country has the liberty to be free from oppression and coercion. I believe that both parties in the U.S. understand the root cause of the Indo-Pacific regional problem comes from the Chinese government. Even for the Biden administration, it will have to provide practical responses. Facing the new structure, they can’t just go back to the traditional thinking of the last century.
As for Taiwan, the pro-Taiwan acts in the U.S., such as the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, Taiwan Travel Act, Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement, were passed with strong consensus between the Republicans and the Democrats. I believe Taiwan could be a key partner to the international community and play an active role in the free world. This isn’t just the consensus of the two parties in the U.S., but will be the consensus of all democratic countries.
In a progressive aspect, the International community can benefit from a wider recognition of Taiwan.
In recent years, the performance of Taiwanese society in terms of epidemic prevention performance, human rights, gender equality, marriage equality, and open government are actually in line with many progressive ideas and visions. The ideas and visions that many democratic countries have long supported. Therefore, I’m quite optimistic that, after 2020, Taiwan can make even greater progress, on multiple levels and in broader aspects, contributing to the international community.
Finally, I want to emphasize again that to truly resolve regional problems, we need dynamic multilateral cooperation. But this must not be a return to the conventional thinking of the past century, which was "expecting" China to abide by the international order. The outdated thinking had been proved to be a failure. Otherwise there wouldn’t be a series of Chinese infiltration and aggression after its rise in recent years, which became one of the most difficult issues in the world. I believe after 2020, U.S., Japan, and Taiwan can establish a new model of international cooperation through deeper collaboration and communication. And hopefully, this model will maximize the security of the Indo-Pacific region and promote peace, stability and development in the region.
This concludes my speech, thank you all for listening.
Lastly, I’d like to express my gratitude to the moderators, my fellow panelists, and the organizers of this event.
I wish everyone peace and good health. Thank you.
global views return policy 在 李怡 Facebook 的最佳解答
Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
global views return policy 在 Eric's English Lounge Facebook 的最佳解答
[時事英文] 紐約時報 G20「習川會」的關鍵英文詞彙!
1. a pivotal moment 一個關鍵時刻
2. open to a truce 願意休戰
3. harden their positions 雙方的立場都變得更加強硬 (強化了各自的立場)
4. resolve tensions 化解緊張關係
5. thrust...into conflict 造成...的衝突(把...推向衝突)
The fate of a yearlong trade war will reach a pivotal moment this weekend as President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China meet in Japan. But while both leaders appear open to a truce, they have hardened their positions ahead of the talks, leaving it unclear how the United States and China will resolve the tensions that have thrust the world’s two largest economies into conflict.
★★★★★★★★★★★★
6. have an incentive to… 有…的動機
7. further escalate 進一步升級
8. batter companies and consumers 猛打公司和消費者
9. weaken the global economy 削弱全球經濟
10. as a result of… 由於...
11. feel the effects 感受到了影響
12. put…at risk 讓...處於危險之中
13. capitulate 投降;屈服
14. agree to concessions 同意讓步
Both leaders have an incentive to avoid a further escalation of a trade war that has battered companies and consumers on both sides of the Pacific. The global economy is weakening as a result of the trade war, with China and America feeling the effects, putting Mr. Trump’s re-election and Mr. Xi’s popularity at risk. But neither leader wants to be seen as capitulating or agreeing to concessions that could give them less leverage once trade talks resume.
★★★★★★★★★★★★
15. big substantive issues 重大實質性的問題
16. make a deal 做個交易
17. change the direction of… 改變…的方向
“There are still big substantive issues to resolve,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “I don’t know how you make a deal in the next year and a half that changes the direction of the U.S.-China relationship.”
★★★★★★★★★★★★
18. on the cusp of… 在...的分界線
19. tit-for-tat punishment 以牙還牙的懲罰
20. resolve issues 解決問題
21. ratchet up 逐步增加
The United States and China appeared to be on the cusp of a trade agreement in April, only to have negotiations collapse in early May after the Chinese government rejected some of the Trump administration’s demands. Tensions have only escalated since, with both sides ratcheting up tit-for-tat punishment, creating even more issues to resolve.
★★★★★★★★★★★★
22. raise tariffs 提高關稅
23. move forward with… 朝向…發展
24. national security concerns 國家安全問題
25. hamstring 使受限制;使難有作爲
Mr. Trump raised tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese products and has moved forward with preparations to tax another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. The United States has tried to cut off the telecom firm Huawei and other Chinese companies from buying American technological components over national security concerns, hamstringing prominent businesses.
★★★★★★★★★★★★
26. in return 作為回報
27. place high tariffs on 對...課高關稅*
28. draw up a blacklist 制定黑名單
In return, China has put its own higher tariffs in place on goods from the United States and threatened to draw up a blacklist of American companies that it views as “unreliable.”
* The original passage says "put (v) tariffs on," which is a bit more literal.
Here's an example from a NY Times article:
China has said it will place tariffs on $50 billion worth of American imports in retaliation.
中國表示將對價值500億美元的美國進口產品徵收報復性關稅。
★★★★★★★★★★★★
29. tough statements 嚴厲的聲明
30. back on track 回到正軌
31. credit crunch 信用緊縮
32. weaken consumer confidence 削弱消費者的信心
33. industrial production 工業生產
34. economic expansion 經濟擴張
35. cut interest rates 降息
Despite the tough statements, there is strong incentive in both countries to get talks back on track. In China, tariffs have piled on to the damaging effects of a sharp but temporary credit crunch last year, further weakening consumer confidence and growth in industrial production. Chinese consumers are seeing spiraling prices for products like pork and fruit. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has cited uncertainty surrounding trade policy as a threat to economic expansion and a reason it may cut interest rates.
★★★★★★★★★★★★
Complete article and image source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/us/politics/us-china-g20-trade.html
★★★★★★★★★★★★
美中女主播貿易戰辯論: http://bit.ly/2Ww3hMS
貿易戰繼續燒: http://bit.ly/2YV0c6r
更多經濟和商業英文詞彙和貿易戰爭錄音檔: http://bit.ly/2Nhjgen
時事英文: http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
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